The USDA is preparing to release the latest rounds of forecasts on Thursday at 9:00 a.m. Pacific Time which will include the likely most accurate look at crop yield forecasts.
Chair of the Outlook Board Seth Meyer said it’s based on farmer surveys and lab tests of crops like corn throughout the U.S. and is generally the most accurate forecast they release.
“The crops are reaching maturity, the harvest is underway. The farmers have a better idea of what’s there and you’ve got lab observations and so that’s why by October we tend to have a yield for corn that doesn’t change much at that point. It’s not to say it can’t change after October, but October is usually the month where it really locks down and from that point forward changes tend to be very modest.”
In corn, the September forecast has been off by an average of 271 million bushels. October’s forecast is about half that.